Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy
In: Metroeconomica, Band 68, Heft 3, S. 500-548
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In: Metroeconomica, Band 68, Heft 3, S. 500-548
SSRN
In: Metroeconomica, Band 67, Heft 2, S. 429-457
SSRN
In: Journal of economics, Band 103, Heft 1, S. 1-38
ISSN: 1617-7134
This dissertation consists of three independent essays. The first essay, "Long Waves and Short Cycles in a Model of Endogenous Financial Fragility," presents a stock flow consistent macroeconomic model in which financial fragility in firm and household sectors evolves endogenously through the interaction between real and financial sectors. Changes in firms' and households' financial practices produce long waves. The Hopf bifurcation theorem is applied to clarify the conditions for the existence of limit cycles, and simulations illustrate stable limit cycles. The long waves are characterized by periodic economic crises following long expansions. Short cycles, generated by the interaction between effective demand and labor market dynamics, fluctuate around the long waves. The second essay,"Macroeconomic Implications of Financialization," examines macroeconomic effects of changes in firms' financial behavior (retention policy, equity financing, debt financing), and household saving and portfolio decisions using models that pay explicit attention to financial stock-flow relations. Unlike the first essay, the second essay focuses on the effects of financial change on steady growth path. The results are insensitive to the precise specification of household saving behavior but depend critically on the labor market assumptions (labor-constrained vs dual) and the specification of the investment function (Harrodian vs stagnationist). The last essay, "Finance, Sectoral Structure and the Big Push," studies the role of finance in the presence of investment complementarities using a big push model. Due to complementarities between different investment projects, simultaneous industrialization of many sectors (big push) may be needed for an underdeveloped economy to escape from an underdevelopment trap. Such simultaneous industrialization requires costly coordination by a third party, such as the government. Some recent papers show that private banks with significant market power may also solve the problem of coordination failure. We show that private coordination may not work since even large private banks may find it more profitable to finance firms in the traditional sector than in the modern sector.
BASE
This paper examines the role of fiscal policy in the long run. We show that (i) dynamic inefficiency in a standard OLG model generates aggregate demand problems in a Keynesian setting, (ii) fiscal policy can be used to achieve full-employment growth, (iii) the required debt ratio is inversely related to both the growth rate and government consumption, and (iv) a simple and distributionally neutral tax scheme can maintain full employment in the face of variations in 'household confidence'.
BASE
In: Metroeconomica, Band 65, Heft 4, S. 585-618
SSRN
In: Journal of post-Keynesian economics, Band 35, Heft 4, S. 511-528
ISSN: 1557-7821
We show that (i) dynamic inefficiency may be empirically relevant in a modified Diamond model with imperfect competition, (ii) if fiscal policy is used to avoid inefficiency and maintain an optimal capital intensity, the required debt ratio will be inversely related to the growth rate, and (iii) austerity policies reductions in government consumption and entitlement programs for the old generation raise the required debt ratio.
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This paper examines the role of fiscal policy in the long run. We show that (i) dynamic inefficiency may be empirically relevant in a modified Diamond OLG model with imperfect competition, (ii) fiscal policy may be needed to avoid inefficiency (if investment adjusts passively to saving) and maintain full employment (if investment and saving decisions are taken separately), (iii) a simple and distributionally neutral tax scheme can maintain full employment in the face of variations in 'household confidence', and (iv) the debt ratio is inversely related to both the growth rate and government consumption. JEL Categories: E62, E22
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This paper examines the fiscal requirements for continuous full employment. We find that (i) changes in the financial behavior of households and firms require adjustments in tax rates and public debt, (ii) the stability of the steady-state solution for public debt depends on the fiscal instrument and the household consumption function, (iii) in stable cases, a fall in government consumption (or a decline in another component of autonomous demand) requires an increase in the steady-state ratio of public debt to capital, and (iv) the steady-state tax rate may be positively or negatively related to the level of debt.
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